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Hydrogen Import Study Interview with Patrick Zimmerman, Fraunhofer CML
The Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg presented its Hydrogen Import Study on November 14. It was conducted under the auspices of the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and Services CML. The lead investigator Patrick Zimmerman discusses the most crucial findings in this interview.

The Free and Hanseatic City of Hamburg presented its Hydrogen Import Study on November 14. It was conducted under the auspices of the Fraunhofer Center for Maritime Logistics and Services CML. The lead investigator Patrick Zimmerman discusses the most crucial findings in this interview.
Mr Zimmerman, can you describe your background and the role that studies play in your everyday working life?
I have a degree in logistics, which more or less makes me an industrial engineer. I coordinate everything to do with hydrogen here at CML. This involves a lot of project work, including studies, techno-economic assessments and the development of tools, including more recently one for determining the dimensions of hydrogen pipelines. Aside from that, I am always on the lookout for project partners.
Was there anything out of the ordinary about preparing the Hydrogen Import Study?
There’s no doubt that it is an extraordinary study, especially due to our use of the scenario technique. This takes the complete know-how of our four-strong, interdisciplinary team. For scenarios to be plausible, we need considerable insight into political agendas and the levels of technological maturity. To do so, we pool knowledge from multiple disciplines, which makes the work a lot of fun. There are also issues regarding potential development pathways: who will benefit and how; which technologies and sectors will be favoured if, for example, there is a change in political support? The Authority for Economy and Innovation (BWI) is a special client, as it significantly expands the scope of the job in regard to space, availability, the Port Development Plan and the Sustainable Energy Hub. This means that we are dealing with a lot of locational issues in addition to the technology itself. Last but not least, we need to establish connections between global issues and more specific locational ones.
Let’s proceed directly to the crux of the matter: what are the core statements of the study?
Allow me to emphasise two insights in particular: first we have the issue of seaborne import capacities. The seaward infrastructure at the Port of Hamburg is adequate to handle the seaborne import volumes of green hydrogen and its derivatives that are progressively forecast until 2045 and hence cover 47% of Germany’s total seaward import demand.
Second we have the topics of land development and tank storage: the Port of Hamburg has the necessary space for the forecast production and seaborne import of hydrogen and its derivatives for all three scenarios we took into account.
Hamburg will play an important role in Germany’s imports of green energy moving forward, as it has the necessary infrastructure to handle the significant quantities from seaborne transports. But you do need to make a distinction: the potential is there, but its exploitation from a business perspective is a completely different matter.
How long did it take to prepare the study? Who was involved?
It took us around a year to complete the study. We received support from our external partner Reacnostics, which was a valuable point of contact for background information and other issues relating to chemistry and process engineering.
You mentioned the scenarios. Can you describe them in more detail?
The three scenarios we developed were Push, Business-as-Usual (BaU) und Stagnation (Stag). The BaU scenario is the most probable one if we consider the historical trends. This scenario builds on a continuity of past trends to project future developments without significant changes in the underlying parameters. By contrast, the Push scenario is the most optimistic one, which draws on best-case assumptions in which positive influencing factors and favourable conditions enable accelerated target attainment. Then we have the pessimistic Stag scenario, which assumes that progress in key areas will slow down or even grind to a halt.
What is the critical criterion for a successful market ramp-up in the optimistic Push scenario?
In this scenario, a positive development of hydrogen and its derivatives is leveraged by vigorous global demand – so also in Hamburg – accompanied by strong political commitment and corresponding investments and funding programmes. Innovations within hydrogen technologies would lead to significant improvements in the availability and efficiency of the necessary components, thus reducing costs and improving the market maturity of H2uD technologies. Accompanying this would be significant progress in carbon capture (CC) technologies, improving their commercial attractiveness due to significant price reductions – which would mainly favour derivative production. Funding projects would support infrastructure development and accelerate research in the H2 sector. In addition, exceeding the expansion targets for renewable energies would stimulate growth of a green hydrogen economy and strengthen the role of H2 as a pivotal element in the energy transition and the ability to build a low-carbon future.
How exactly was Hamburg’s demand for hydrogen determined?
We looked at the energy requirements of industry, transportation and private households and used metadata from the Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein, among others. Hamburg’s total final energy demand in 2021 amounted to 47.48 TWh, of which around 61%, so 29.14 TWh, was of obtained from fossil fuels. We also investigated the substitutability of fossil fuels with electrification, hydrogen and derivatives in the various scenarios.
How do you assume that hydrogen will arrive in Hamburg – either in gaseous or liquid form – if the necessary vessels are not yet available?
With regard to hydrogen, the assumption is that importing liquefied hydrogen will be technically possible and commercially viable by 2045. The forecast is for 600,000 t/a (20 TWh/a) of LH2 imports. Only some of the current infrastructure is suitable for retrofitting, so it will be necessary to build new infrastructure at the Port of Hamburg in order to import and store liquid hydrogen and ammonia. Included in this forecast is the evidence-based assessment that the development and production of vessels to transport hydrogen will increase. This leads to the question of how hinterland transport will be handled. There will be a need for research and development in regard to inland waterway navigation. Current legislation prohibits the deployment of inland tankers for the onward transport of hydrogen, which means that distribution via rivers and canals must be containerised.
And in regard to derivatives, it is important to remember that the transport mode is often dictated by the final intended use; for example, green ammonia can be used directly to produce fertilisers. However unappealing this might be to some, the market logic is that energy efficiency is less important than economic efficiency.
Do the assumptions include a gradual rezoning of the port areas?
We looked at current functional assignments, for example where existing tank farms could be used or repurposed. Momentary ownership structures were not factored into the equation. But the existing infrastructure is not the only important factor; areas where conversion might take place are also crucial. The port expansion areas will bring the biggest challenges.
Can you outline the significance of pipeline imports and how they relate to seaborne imports?
Seaborne imports still play a subordinate role compared to pipelines, but they remain to be constructed and are not the solution for all suppliers everywhere. My assumption is that pipelines and ships will each account for approximately the same import volumes going forward. But the supra-regional role of the location is even more important: once local demand for hydrogen and its derivatives has been met, Hamburg could provide between 10 and 18 percent of Germany's total requirement for hydrogen-based energy sources in 2045.
So your belief is that Hamburg will play a decisive role as an energy port in the future?
Only a few hydrogen nuclei will exist, even if we do not assume that market ramp-up will be based on a quasi ‘planned economy’ in which politicians seek to determine the hubs, but rather a market-oriented evolution of hydrogen centres according to supply and demand. After all, they will hinge on the presence of production, storage, distribution and use. Locations that bring all of these factors together in one place are in an ideal position. And apart from Hamburg, only a small number of locations could make this claim.
What additional burden might this place on urban traffic?
We do not believe that a commodity shift in energy carriers will bring a significant additional burden. None of the scenarios, not even Push, indicate that expected transports in 2045 would present a significant additional burden for Hamburg’s transport system. The share of truck transport in the Push scenario will account for 2% of today’s volume. The numbers for rail transports are 7% and 6% for domestic waterway transports.
So what happens next? Are there any follow-up studies in the pipeline?
For us, the project is over for the time being. An update would make sense in a few years. It would be interesting to see how the scenarios have developed in retrospect.
You can access the full study on the City of Hamburg Transport Portal (in German).